''It's early in the campaign season, and in the end the vote on this measure ... could be hard to predict. Overall views on gay marriage have not budged.... The burden is always on the yes side to convince people there is good reason to vote for the measure.''

Mark Baldassare of the Public Policy Institute whose new poll of California residents found that only 40% would vote to stop gay marriages, while 54% would allow legal gay marriages to stand in California, however, not all of the latter group approve of the idea of gay marriage. The population is said to be evenly split 47% to 47% in their personal opinion. (Time) A Field poll conducted in May found similar results of 42% opposed to legal gay marriage, and 51% will allow. (San Francisco Chronicle)