
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leads a new poll of Democratic voters in New Hampshire — the first state in the presidential primary process — emerging as the early favorite in a hypothetical 2028 race.
Buttigieg leads a crowded field of younger Democrats who were sidelined when former President Joe Biden opted to seek re-election. Biden ultimately ended his campaign just months before Election Day, hampered by concerns over his age — 81 at the time — and questions about his mental sharpness.
According to the University of New Hampshire’s Granite State Poll, Buttigieg — who ran for president in 2020 before joining Biden’s Cabinet — earned 19% support in the hypothetical Democratic primary.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom placed second with 15% support, narrowly edging U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), a favorite among progressives. Ocasio-Cortez is being closely watched to see whether she’ll launch a presidential bid in 2028 or challenge Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) in his re-election race.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, the 2024 Democratic nominee, drew 11% support, followed by U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 8% and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker at 6%.
Other Democrats — including Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear, Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), and Cory Booker (D-N.J.), plus Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer — each polled at 3% or less.
Another 10% of respondents said they were undecided.
The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points among likely Democratic primary voters, suggesting that Buttigieg, Newsom, and Ocasio-Cortez are effectively tied as early frontrunners — which is very early in the four-year presidential cycle.
Democrats find themselves at a crossroads after the bruising 2024 election cycle, which saw the party lose support across nearly every age, income, and racial demographic. Some argue the party has drifted too far left — especially on social issues — and must “moderate” its image by being more pro-business, less “politically correct,” and more open to ideological diversity.
Others, particularly progressives, contend that Democrats should return to their New Deal roots by championing social programs and populist economic policies aimed at re-engaging working-class Americans who feel abandoned by the party and alienated by a political system that favors the wealthy and well-connected.
Buttigieg — and, to a lesser extent, Newsom — fall in the moderate camp, seen as liberal but not fully progressive. Buttigieg has criticized his party for sounding scolding or preachy, especially to younger men who feel it caters to other identity groups at their expense. He is also viewed as more conciliatory toward donors, corporate interests, and Republicans — traits that don’t sit well with the party’s left flank.
If elected, Buttigieg would make history as the nation’s first openly gay president. His sexuality, however, would almost certainly become a lightning rod for conservatives, some of whom have spread false rumors about his HIV status, mocked his parental leave after he and his husband adopted two children with health issues, and dismissed him as an unqualified “diversity hire” within the Biden administration. A few on the far right have even accused him of “faking” his sexuality to appeal to “woke” voters and advance his career.
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