Pete Buttigieg Leads 2028 Democrats in New Hampshire Poll

Former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg holds a nearly 2-1 lead over California Gov. Gavin Newsom in a recent poll of 2028 Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, the first-in-the-nation presidential primary state.

The poll, conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center from March 16 to 18, surveyed 1,491 registered voters in the Granite State, including 690 Democrats. Respondents were randomly selected and the data weighted to reflect the state’s demographics and 2024 voting patterns.

Buttigieg leads all Democratic contenders with 29% support in a multi-candidate primary. Newsom follows at 15%, with U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10% and former Vice President Kamala Harris at 6%. Eleven percent of voters remain undecided.

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5%, making Buttigieg’s lead over Newsom statistically significant.

Among Republican voters, JD Vance leads Secretary of State Marco Rubio 46% to 27% in the same poll.

None of the candidates listed in the poll have officially announced 2028 presidential bids. Most are expected to decide after the November midterm elections.

While Buttigieg leads in New Hampshire, most national polls still show Harris as the likeliest Democratic nominee, a position often attributed to her name recognition over lesser-known contenders.

Harris also performs strongly among Black voters — a key Democratic constituency — while Buttigieg has struggled with that group dating back to his 2020 run.

A recent Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll shows Harris with 31% support nationally, followed by Newsom at 16%, Buttigieg at 7%, and Ocasio-Cortez at 6%. Eighteen percent remain undecided.

Across aggregated polls, Harris leads Newsom by about 7 points, with support from just over a quarter of Democratic voters. Buttigieg averages roughly 10%.

Other candidates polling between 3% and 8% include Ocasio-Cortez, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Sen. Mark Kelly, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Sen. Cory Booker, and Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear.

Grant Davis Reecher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek that he was not surprised by the national polling trends.

“Harris has not taken herself out of contention, and given that she was the nominee in 2024, and that many elements of the Democratic Party feel some guilt over the outcome, it doesn’t surprise me that she is at the top,” he said. “I still think she’d be a potentially disastrous pick for the Party; not the best shot it has of retaking the White House in 2028.

“I’m also not surprised by Newsom being number two. He’s been actively campaigning for the spot, is the governor of California, and has been very visible in his attacks on President Trump,” Reecher added. “I also still think he would not be a particularly good pick for the Democrats, though he is better than Harris. As others come forward, I’d expect to see the field get crowded and much more competitive.”

Buttigieg, widely seen as one of the Biden administration’s most effective communicators, has been making frequent appearances on cable news and podcasts — signaling he may be preparing for another run in 2028.

In those appearances, he has been sharply critical of President Donald Trump’s administration, particularly its handling of the economy, the war in Iran, and aggressive immigration enforcement tactics.

“Our economy is bleeding jobs. Prices are up, especially for gas. Yet the White House prioritizes tax cuts for billionaires, while launching a reckless new Middle East war,” Buttigieg said in an X post earlier this month. “It doesn’t have to stay this way — not if the American people make our voices heard.”