Voters Penalize Gay and Trans Candidates in Politico Poll
A series of hypothetical polling matchups reveals that voters don't penalize candidates for their race or gender, but do for LGBTQ identity.
A new experiment from The Politico Poll reveals that while voters are willing to support candidates who aren’t white men, they are more likely to penalize a candidate who is transgender or explicitly identified as “gay.”
As part of the experiment, Politico‘s polling partner, Public First, showed thousands of respondents a series of head-to-head matchups involving hypothetical candidates who differed in demographic characteristics, such as race, age, gender, sexual orientation, or gender identity; religious beliefs and practices; career, with titles such as doctor, attorney general, or CEO; and political alignment, described in a single sentence as progressive or moderate Democrat, independent, or moderate or MAGA Republican.
Other groups penalized by both Democrats and Republicans included vegans and previously divorced candidates.
Voters were also more likely to penalize non-Christian candidates than Christian candidates — although Republicans were significantly more likely to do so than Democrats. Among Republicans, Muslim candidates fared worse than atheists, who fared worse than Jewish candidates, who fared worse than Christians. Among Democrats, Jewish, atheist, and Muslim candidates all fared about the same compared to Christian candidates.
Voters were also more favorably disposed toward candidates of any religious background who regularly attend religious services than those who attend only once a year.
The chief characteristic influencing vote preference was ideology, with Republicans expressing the greatest preference for a “MAGA Republican,” followed by a “moderate Republican.” Democrats were more likely to support Democrats, whether classified as moderate or progressive.
Republicans were less likely to vote for a moderate or progressive Democrat, and Democrats were less likely to vote for a moderate Republican. Democrats were even less likely to support a “MAGA Republican” candidate.
The poll found some variation in support for candidates based on race or gender, but the differences were not statistically significant. As a result, Politico concluded that voters in these matchups did not disproportionately penalize candidates of color or women based on race or gender.
The poll also found that voters across both parties were more likely to reject older candidates in favor of younger ones. Democrats were more skeptical of politicians over 55, while Republicans were more inclined to vote for someone aged 45 to 70 but less likely to support a candidate over 70.
Democrats have been particularly sensitive about a candidate’s demographic background, in part because their party lost the White House both times it nominated a woman for president. They have also fretted about whether voters will penalize the party if a candidate of color becomes its presidential nominee, pointing to former Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss to Donald Trump in 2024.
“The American people, I believe, think about identity way less than the average political consultant does,” Mike Nellis, a longtime Democratic digital strategist who advised Harris’ 2020 presidential campaign, told Politico. “Obviously there are factors in society that make it harder for women and people of color to get elected, but there are plenty of incredibly talented people out there who are capable of getting over the hump on that.”
Buttigieg has recently argued that the country is ready to elect a gay president, and that candidates will be judged not on their identities but on their character and how their policy prescriptions will affect people’s lives. However, at least according to The Politico Poll, identifying explicitly as “gay” may be more detrimental to a candidate than being identified as married to a husband.
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