“We’re two weeks from Election Day and we’re feeling confident, but cautiously optimistic about what we’re going to see on November 3,” says Ramiro Sarmiento, national press secretary for the Human Rights Campaign, discussing the organization’s work on behalf of pro-LGBTQ candidates in the upcoming midterm elections.

Earlier this month, HRC’s educational and charitable arm, the Human Rights Campaign Foundation, released data from the Annual LGBTQ+ Community Survey showing that LGBTQ adults — an estimated 25.6 million people, or about 12% of U.S. adults — are highly engaged in the upcoming election. Among those registered to vote, 87% say they plan to cast a ballot in this year’s congressional, state, and local elections.

The survey also found that nearly three in four LGBTQ voters rank civil rights and equal protections for LGBTQ people among the three issues most important in shaping their votes this cycle. LGBTQ voters are almost universally anxious about the future of those protections, with 92% worried that the right-leaning U.S. Supreme Court could undermine federal workplace discrimination protections and 85% concerned that it may reverse Obergefell v. Hodges, the decision that legalized marriage equality nationwide.

More than one in three LGBTQ voters rank economic stability, inflation, and the cost of living among their top three issues motivating them to vote this year, while one in three cite government accountability and corruption. More than one in four name the functioning of democracy and elections, or abortion and reproductive rights, among their top three.

“They are like many other folks outside the community. They are very interested and concerned with economic stability, inflation, and the cost of living,” Sarmiento says of LGBTQ voters. “I think another notable data point is that 51% are feeling financial pressure, saying they’re struggling or just getting by. And that’s very reflective of what is happening in the country right now with the rising costs. And 47% say they are worse off than two years ago.”

Although LGBTQ people make up a minority of the electorate, the community’s enthusiasm for voting, especially relative to the broader electorate, could help swing elections in favor of pro-equality candidates.

“I believe that, when it comes to November 4, we’ll be able to say, with evidence, that equality voters decided the election and that anti-trans ads didn’t,” Sarmiento says.

The biggest challenge for pro-LGBTQ organizations is reaching “pro-equality voters,” a term encompassing LGBTQ people and allies who prioritize LGBTQ equality when choosing a candidate. HRC has identified approximately 74 million voters across all 50 states and the District of Columbia who fit those criteria.

To reach those voters, HRC has invested $15 million — one of the largest investments in its history — in a public education and engagement campaign. The initiative primarily focuses on flipping eight House seats in five states — Arizona, California, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania — believed to have significant numbers of voters concerned about LGBTQ legal protections. It also aims to elect pro-equality candidates in five key U.S. Senate races — four for seats currently held by Democrats and three for open seats. The campaign also seeks to increase the number of out LGBTQ elected officials and combat anti-LGBTQ ballot measures in various states.

“We’ve got 2,000 staff and volunteers doing direct voter contact. We’ve got over 100 electoral events between Labor Day and Election Day, and we have staff traveling around the country to support the efforts on the ground,” Sarmiento says.

But HRC isn’t the only LGBTQ organization focused on voter engagement. Cathy Renna, communications director for the National LGBTQ Task Force, says the organization has embraced a multipronged approach. Its nationwide civic engagement initiative, “Queer the Vote,” seeks to mobilize LGBTQ voters and allies, educate voters about LGBTQ issues, and defeat ballot initiatives that would restrict or strip away LGBTQ Americans’ freedoms.

“The goal for us is, when we say we want to ‘Queer the Vote,’ driving our community and allies to the polls. It’s about people power,” Renna says. “We have to do as much as we can to create conditions where we can deliver progress and wins for queer people, even at a time when we’re dealing with tremendous opposition.”

As part of that outreach, the Task Force has developed a voter guide explaining how to vote, identification requirements for trans voters, and how to request provisional ballots or ensure votes are cast correctly. It also explains how voters with disabilities or whose primary language is not English can request accommodations.

The guide also explains how transgender and nonbinary voters can report voter intimidation and directs them to resources from pro-LGBTQ groups such as Lambda Legal and Advocates for Trans Equality. The Task Force has worked with these organizations on identification documents and other potential barriers to voting.

The Task Force has also been reaching LGBTQ people and allies through social media and other digital platforms, sharing early voting hours, voter registration guidelines, and other information to make casting a ballot easier.

“A big part of this is just who the Task Force is,” Renna says. “It’s in our DNA to talk about the larger issues that are at stake and how they impact all of us, and how we have a more expansive way of looking at queer liberation. It’s about democracy, it’s about economy, it’s about how we care for each other in community. It’s about creating a world where we can be ourselves and where we can experience not just surviving, but thriving and can experience joy.”

She adds, “The other part of this, which again, I just can’t say it enough, is we really want folks to understand that voting is just the first thing. There’s then this people’s policy and power guide for after the election on how to stay engaged, on how to have an impact no matter who gets elected.”

Critical Elections

For the 2026 cycle, pro-LGBTQ organizers are looking to increase the number of out LGBTQ elected officials. Some would make history in their states or districts, while also serving as resources for colleagues with questions or concerns about LGBTQ-related policies or legislation.

For instance, San Diego Councilmember Marni von Wilpert is running in California’s newly redrawn 48th Congressional District, which stretches from San Diego to Palm Springs. Despite both cities’ sizable LGBTQ populations, the district has never had out LGBTQ representation at the federal level. Similarly, California State Sen. Scott Wiener would, if elected, become the first openly gay member of Congress from San Francisco, a city known for its rich LGBTQ history.

Other LGBTQ candidates in notable races include Cait Conley, running for a swing seat in New York’s 17th Congressional District; Jeremy Moss, seeking to represent Michigan’s 11th Congressional District and become the state’s first out LGBTQ member of Congress; and U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, who would, if elected, become the first openly gay man elected to the U.S. Senate.

Evan Low, president and CEO of LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, which seeks to elect out LGBTQ people to public office, says the potential for those historic “firsts” can help juice turnout and generate excitement among LGBTQ voters.

Beyond races featuring LGBTQ candidates, many prominent LGBTQ advocacy organizations see a Democratic-controlled Congress as more favorable to their interests and more receptive to their concerns. Advocates have therefore taken a keen interest in House and Senate races featuring candidates with LGBTQ-friendly policy positions, including Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, James Talarico in Texas, and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan.

Anti-LGBTQ attacks loom large over the upcoming elections, following their prominent role in Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign. Chief among them was the infamous “they/them” ad attacking Democratic nominee Kamala Harris over her support for covering gender-affirming care for transgender prisoners — despite similar policies in place during Trump’s first term.

Low suggests that the influence of such attack ads may be overstated, arguing that if transgender issues were a top priority for voters, they likely wouldn’t have lost their salience in just two years. Recent polling suggests that LGBTQ issues, particularly culture-war debates over transgender rights, rank near the bottom of most non-LGBTQ voters’ priorities.

“We’ve seen some of the unfortunate tactics that have been utilized in the past to attack us,” he says. “At the same time, I’d say that our observation is that they are not going to lower the price of health care or gas. And if you look at much of the polling that exists, the data reflects that these tactics are not working. In fact, to the contrary, we believe very strongly that leaning into the issue and supporting members of the LGBTQ community is an asset, not a liability.”

Low also notes that anti-transgender attacks may have been easier for Republicans to make when they were out of power. Those attacks may carry less weight now that the GOP controls both the presidency and Congress, yet people’s material conditions have not improved.

“Look at the attacks against James Talarico,” Low says. “If the anti-trans playbook was as successful as they claim it is in a deep red state, those attacks would be working. But in fact, James Talarico doesn’t shy away from his [pro-LGBTQ] positions, but says, ‘I’m running because I want to lower the price of healthcare and cost of living issues.’

“I think it is illustrative of the fact that it is to your detriment to throw [the LGBTQ community] under the bus because that’s not what Americans care about,” he continues. “Members of the trans community living their own lived experience, that identity, is not the reason for why the cost of gasoline is so high.”

Sarmiento says many advocates believe the “they/them” ad worked because the Harris campaign failed to answer its underlying allegation — that Harris was overly focused on social issues at the expense of economic concerns like inflation and the rising cost of living. Like Low, he argues that anti-LGBTQ activists and their Republican allies face greater difficulty exploiting that dynamic now that the GOP controls the presidency and Congress.

But not all candidates are on the same page as activists. Some Democrats, including those with previously pro-LGBTQ records, have sought to distance themselves from the party’s positions on transgender issues, opposing trans participation in sports or supporting restrictions on gender-affirming care for minors or adults on Medicaid.

Sarmiento notes that HRC has offered candidates a playbook for responding to anti-trans political attacks.

“The first piece of advice is: Don’t take the bait. To be clear, you need to respond to such attacks, but not feed into them,” he says. “These attacks are not going to stop, but you need to make sure that you are responding to them, because we saw in previous elections that if you didn’t respond, that benefited your opponents. But if you stood ten toes down in your values and then moved on to the issues that all voters care about, which is the cost of living, you were more likely to be successful.”

Sarmiento says anti-trans attacks are part of a broader effort to normalize attacks on LGBTQ people and their lives. Candidates, he argues, need to highlight that those behind the attacks are offering few solutions to voters’ economic concerns, which are top of mind this campaign cycle.

“This is a third consecutive election where our opponents have been weaponizing anti-trans attacks against candidates, and you really see this fatigue on voters’ side, because it has lost the traction that it once had,” he says. 

“It perhaps was a bit more novel in 2024, but then 2025, we saw gubernatorial candidates like in Virginia and New Jersey and even the mayoral election in Omaha, where big money went into each of those elections with these types of attacks,” Sarmiento continues. “And what those [pro-equality] candidates did was exactly what our playbook guidance says, which is, ‘You need to stand in your values because that is more respected by voters and then you need to push back and then move on to the issues.’ Why? Because voters, by and large, want to hear you talk about how you’re going to fix the issues that they care about.”

Post-Election

Following the midterms, pundits, politicians, and activists will assess which messages and tactics were effective. But Renna warns that the real policy fights will come after the new Congress is seated in January. LGBTQ advocates will need to hold their elected officials accountable, even as lawmakers juggle other priorities.

“We have to understand that no matter what the margin is that we have, we have a lot of work ahead to deal with what’s already happened in the last two years,” she says. “It’s going to take a long time to fix the things that have been broken.”

Renna says educating lawmakers about LGBTQ issues will be essential, even if nominally pro-LGBTQ candidates are elected. Progress on trans issues is unlikely to be immediate, she notes, given the broader public’s unfamiliarity with gender identity and expression.

“The reality is this: There’s so much education that needs to happen, because there is a limited base of knowledge, and so little personal experience with trans people,” she says. “And the other side knows that there is a lot of misinformation and just ignorance around who trans people are, what their issues are.”

Renna notes that the Task Force has several initiatives to keep LGBTQ people engaged beyond Election Day. Policy Power Hour, a recurring virtual series, explains legislation, policy developments, and civil rights rulings without jargon so people can understand their impact and take action. The Organizing Committee provides a space for political education and collective action between election cycles. Empower Hour, another recurring virtual program, engages faith communities and organizers on issues affecting the LGBTQ community.

But even with those tools, advocates will have to keep showing up, engaging with the public and lawmakers, identifying partners, and building coalitions to achieve full lived equality.

“I look at this as someone who has the longer view that has been doing this work for over 30 years, and how long it took for us to educate folks and get them to understand gay and lesbian issues,” Renna says. “Whether it was marriage equality or ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,’ this is the kind of cultural and political education that literally takes decades. We have to understand that we’ve got to be in this for the long haul. It’s not going to happen overnight.”

For voter registration information, polling locations, hours, and voting requirements in your state, visit vote.gov.