Grammy Predictions 2022: Song of the Year
For our money, the Grammy race for Song of the Year comes down to a battle between two artists -- Olivia Rodrigo and Silk Sonic.
Of all the top four categories at the Grammys — Record, Album and Song of the Year, and Best New Artist — Song is usually the most difficult to predict.
The trophy is given to the songwriters (as opposed to the producers and artists, who take home Record of the Year), and it’s bestowed upon those who crafted what is thought of as the best-written track of the eligibility period. But what does that mean?
Is a single stunningly penned because it’s insanely catchy and reached the masses, or maybe the winner needs to be elegant and more loving?
It’s up for voters to decide every year what they believe is most important in determining the best-written track, and they often change their minds, making it hard to guess who will come out on top.
Nominees
- Justin Bieber – “Peaches (ft. Daniel Caesar and Giveon)”
- Doja Cat – “Kiss Me More (ft. SZA)”
- Brandi Carlile – “Right on Time”
- Billie Eilish – “Happier Than Ever”
- H.E.R. – “Fight for You”
- Alicia Keys and Brandi Carlile – “A Beautiful Noise”
- Lil Nas X – “Montero (Call Me By Your Name)”
- Olivia Rodrigo – “Drivers License”
- Ed Sheeran – “Bad Habits”
- Silk Sonic – “Leave the Door Open”
Most Likely Winners
- Olivia Rodrigo – “Drivers License”
- Silk Sonic – “Leave the Door Open”
Our Prediction
- Olivia Rodrigo – “Drivers License”
This may be the year Olivia Rodrigo cleans up, as she’s already expected to easily snag Best New Artist and perhaps even Album of the Year.
Her debut single “Drivers License” was a giant success, and from the moment it arrived, a new superstar had been introduced to the world. The tune was a commercial juggernaut, debuting at No. 1 and remaining there for eight weeks in a row, and critics loved it.
The fact that she was able to follow it up with more smashes helps voters see her not as a one-hit-wonder or an industry prop (as she wrote all her songs with a small group of collaborators), but as a true talent.
Giving Rodrigo a run for her money in the Song of the Year category is Silk Sonic, a superduo composed of Bruno Mars and Anderson .Paak. Expectations were high for their first release together, and they exceeded them with the delightfully retro “Leave the Door Open.” The tune, which borrows heavily from the soft pop/R&B of the ’70s, is perfectly executed, and it’s a wonder they were able to score a No. 1 hit with something that sounds so, well, old.
There are certainly other great tracks that are beautifully written and that deserve this recognition — as always, don’t ignore Billie Eilish and H.E.R., who Grammy voters adore — but it seems at this point to be between “Drivers License” and “Leave the Door Open.” Looking at only those two, our vote goes to the former, but anything can happen during the biggest award show in music!
The Grammys are Sunday, April 3, starting at 8 p.m. on CBS. Visit grammy.com to see the full list of nominees and for more information on how to watch.
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